India have built a peculiar ODI record in Australia in the 21st century. They've won a triangular tournament there. Only five visiting teams since 1990 have won this tournament in 21 editions. West Indies in 1993, Pakistan in 1997, South Africa in 2002, England in 2007 and India in 2008. Australia have built a 139-54 record in these games over these 25 years. Their dominance has persisted throughout the 21st century (115-38). If you think this was down to their all time great World Cup winning squads of 1999, 2003 and 2007, think again. In the last 5 years, Australia have a 33-12 record at home. They are, as Sachin Tendulkar recently put it, "a serious side" at home.
Since the year 2000, India have won 5 and lost 15 against Australia in Australia. Against other teams, they've broken even at 7-7. Other visiting teams find Australian conditions as foreign as India do. After 2 months in Australia during which the Indian batting distinguished itself, but the bowling didn't for the most part, India could have gone one of two ways. They could have fallen apart, been beaten in the mind and just waited for the tour to be over. Or they would have realized that having spent 2 months trying to beat Australia in Australia with a bad bowling attack, they were probably playing better than most teams in the world. Even the bowling attack has learnt a lot. Its a bit like having gone through a couple of months in which you put in 80 hour weeks at work. You are extremely exhausted at the end of it, but at the same time, you've gotten bloody good at what you do, even if you don't always realize it.
So for India, I expected friendlier (or at least, more conventional) pitches at Adelaide and Melbourne, and easier opposition compared to Australia. South Africa are awesome, but they are playing away from Home too. What's more, though they have come to the World Cup with a great team it is a strangely un-South-African side. South Africa have traditionally had great all-round talent to call upon. Think about Kallis, Boucher, Pollock, Klusener and McMillan, or even lesser players like Andrew Hall, Nicky Boje, Hansie Cronje and Justin Kemp. South Africa have always had somebody who could bowl 10 steady overs and bat in the top 6, and a couple of players from 7 to 11 who could bowl 10 good overs, or keep wickets, and hit the long ball. This team is not like that. The three players who could be charitably considered all-rounders in this ODI side are Wayne Parnell, Farhan Behardien and JP Duminy. Duminy is a steady spinner, but he's not a wicket taking threat. Kallis was in ODI cricket.
To compensate, South Africa have two all-time great ODI batsmen in their top 6. As a pair of batsmen, having Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers the same side is like having Sachin Tendulkar and Viv Richards in the same side. No team in history has had such a pair before this. Add the classy Faf du Plessis and the intimidating David Miller to these two, and you have a formidable top four. Quinton de Kock and Riley Roussouw are inexperienced, but have demonstrated the ability to score quickly at the top of the order. JP Duminy is now a seasoned number 6 batsman. de Villiers, Amla, Duminy and Miller have played 43 games together. Since 2013, they've been joined by de Plessis. It is a steady, well-tested batting order.
| PLAYER(s) | M | I | NO | RUNS | AVE | BF | SR | 100s | 50s | INN/50+ |
| HM Amla | 109 | 106 | 9 | 5392 | 55.6 | 6034 | 89.4 | 19 | 27 | 2.3 |
| AB de Villiers | 176 | 169 | 29 | 7364 | 52.6 | 7586 | 97.1 | 19 | 42 | 2.8 |
| SR Tendulkar (India) | 463 | 452 | 41 | 18426 | 44.8 | 21367 | 86.2 | 49 | 96 | 3.1 |
| IVA Richards (WI) | 187 | 167 | 24 | 6721 | 47.0 | 7451 | 90.2 | 11 | 45 | 3.0 |
| Amla and AB | 100 | 192 | 29 | 9809 | 60.2 | 10280 | 95.4 | 33 | 52 | 2.3 |
The game against India at Melbourne was the 100th match in which Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers have featured together. They average 98 runs per match and its a rare game in which at least one of them has not reached 50.
A core bowling attack comprising of Steyn, Morkel, Philander and Tahir speaks for itself. Imran Tahir now has 59 ODI wickets at 20.3. He concedes 4.4 runs per over.
Yet, the other two positions have proved to be a problem. The smaller problem is the choice for Hashim Amla's opening partner. Wicketkeeping is not a problem since de Villiers keeps wickets competently in ODI cricket. The other position would normally be filled by all rounders. Given South Africa's specialist strength, if you were to add say Klusener or Faulkner (of Australia) or Mathews (of Sri Lanka) to this side, they would be nearly impossible to beat. Ryan McLaren was supposed to be South Africa's all-rounder. With 5 first class hundreds and 336 first class wickets to his name, McLaren had the ability to play this role. His form declined and South Africa have chosen to play either Behardien (a bits and pieces man) or Parnell (a fast bowling all-rounder in the mould of Starc or Johnson).
By contrast, India know their combination. They have found a way to play both Ashwin and Jadeja. Should the batting collapse, and should India find themselves 5 down by the 30th over, Ashwin and Jadeja are good enough with the bat to build reasonable innings. Ajinkya Rahane's form over the last 15 months or so, has given India a high quality option in the middle order. In the lead up to the World Cup, India would have hoped that at least one out of Pujara and Rahane would find form to make the World Cup squad. Ambati Rayudu is a competent player but lacks the class of Ajinkya Rahane. India now find themselves in the happy position of having Rayudu and Bhuvneshwar Kumar (once he regains fitness) in reserve.
The game was set up between an Indian side which seemed to have found its balance, and a South African side which was trying to cover up its imbalance. AB de Villiers selected the extra bowler and then captained to take wickets throughout India's innings. He kept the field up and challenged India's batsmen to either score off South Africa's stellar in-field, or take risks. Notwithstanding two run-outs with direct hits by de Villiers, Dhawan, Kohli and Rahane were equal to the challenge. All three seemed happier on this MCG pitch than they had looked against England's tall fast bowlers at Perth or Brisbane. And all three were patient. India made 10 in the first 5 overs, 36 in the first 10 and 83 in the first 20 overs of their innings. Batting first, it is possible to keep wickets in hand and take chances later to reach as high a score as possible. Its much harder to do this chasing. India's 10 over splits were 1/36, 0/47, 1/63, 0/81 and 5/80. de Villiers chased wickets in vain between overs 21 and 40. He attacked Dhawan's strength by placing 2 cover-points and inviting the square-cut. It worked, but Hashim Amla failed to complete a sharp chance. India's swashbuckling left handed opener would go on to make a supreme 137, replete with memorable strokes. Dhawan dominated his stand with Kohli scoring 77 to Kohli's 46 and facing 86 balls to Kohli's 60.
Ajinkya Rahane is a difficult batsman to contain. He is that rare player who is equally good at lofting the ball over cover and mid-wicket. He can also sweep and hook. He has the priceless gift of timing and an excellent defense. When on song, he's unstoppable. There was one particular stroke which stood out in his 79 (in only 60 balls). Imran Tahir was bowling with long-on on the fence. Ajinkya Rahane stepped out and lofted a well-pitched Tahir leg-break clean into the stands over the long-on fence. Tahir is quicker through the air than the average leg-spinner, but that stroke was simply too good. There was nothing Tahir or de Villiers could have done about it.
MS Dhoni has not had a good World Cup with the bat so far. There is some suggestion that he's not the player he used to be these days. But he's made 36 in 18 balls batting after the 45th over of India's innings. That's not bad for a specialist wicketkeeper.
India's defense of 307 would depend on bowling accurately to well set fields. But they went one better. Against Hashim Amla, Dhoni gave his bowlers more cover on the leg side and had them bowl to Amla on middle stump. As a result, Amla was starved of scoring opportunities square of the wicket on the off side. When he fell, it was to a good bouncer. Mohit Sharma hit the wicket hard when he pitched it short, got Amla to hook one down fine-leg's throat. He then produced a similarly whole-hearted effort at deep point to produce a brilliant run out of AB de Villiers. Mohit's throw was inch perfect. Later, Umesh Yadav would produce a similarly brilliant throw from deep point to dismiss David Miller. India had got two run outs of their own to counter the two effected by AB de Villiers in the Indian innings.
Mohammad Shami has found some form with the ball and it showed. Dhoni gave him a lot of cover on the off side against the left handed de Kock, and with the new ball zipping slightly quicker off the pitch under the lights, Shami drew the false shot from the South African wicketkeeper.
As good as the new ball bowlers were, the lynchpin of India's bowling effort was Ravindra Jadeja. He was crucial for a number reasons. First, he allowed MS Dhoni to hold Ashwin back for the two left handers at 5 and 6 in the South Africa order. Second, he bowled well enough to force the batsmen to take risks at the other end. Between Shami, Umesh Yadav, Jadeja and Mohit Sharma, I don't recall South Africa being allowed a single square cut.
It was a textbook effort from India. They were watchful against the new ball and inventive against the older ball. They bowled accurately to well set fields and forced South Africa's brilliant batsmen to take chances to score boundaries. That's all you can ask for from bowlers. The odds favor the bowling side on all but the flattest wickets given accurate bowling.
Mohit Sharma merits careful watching as an ODI bowler. He rarely drifts down leg, has subtle variations of pace, and can hit the wicket hard when he bowls back of a good length. Ashwin's eventual figures were flattering. He bowled much better for 1/41 at Adelaide last week than he did in this game. Umesh Yadav went for 34 in 6 overs. 12 of those came due to fortuitous top edges which flew to the boundary behind Dhoni. Umesh's pace is unquestionably a fine asset for India. Given accurate bowling elsewhere, it will be a nice asset for Dhoni to have if he needs to break a game open.
India had the better of the toss against both Pakistan and South Africa. To win the World Cup, they face two major challenges. First, they will need to win batting second against a top team at some point in the tournament. To do so, they will have to bowl well in the afternoon of a D/N game. This is decidedly more difficult especially given that it is harder to enforce scoreboard pressure on a side that's trying to set a target. Second, they'll have to beat Australia. This has proved to be a difficult task in recent times.
I'm not convinced that India are good enough to win the World Cup. But I am convinced that India are a seriously good all-round ODI side and opponents will have to play well to beat them in this tournament. I hope India stay healthy, for balance is a precious and brittle thing.
As for South Africa, the 130 run margin at the MCG can be put down to Philander's injury, Parnell's failure with the ball (he conceded 85) and the fact that an already top-heavy line up was made even more top-heavy because SA picked the extra bowler. They are a couple of tweaks away from being the high quality finely tuned side we are used to in South African colors.
Realistically, the prize for the winner of the India v South Africa game was first place in the Group and the prospect of a Quarter Final against England, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh. Pakistan have lost to India and West Indies. Ireland have beaten West Indies. Unless West Indies upset South Africa, it appears that they will compete for third or fourth place in the group with Pakistan and Ireland.
India have a quiet month from here. Unless something dramatic happens, they should qualify comfortably. They are playing well enough right now to be considered a dark horse to win the tournament behind Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.