India 457 all out, England 352/9. This is a fairly conventional score after three days in Test cricket. 800 runs, 19 wickets. India will probably end up taking a lead of about 70-75. They'll try to set up a declaration by the end of Day 4. The rain which was forecast for Day 3 did not materialize. Rain has been forecast for Sunday.
The story underneath this conventional score is one of two modest batting line ups and two modest bowling line ups. India managed to reduce England to 202/7, before England's last 2 wickets scored 150. England reduced India to 350/9, before India's last pair put on a century stand. India were lucky to get Sam Robson and possibly Matt Prior. England were lucky to get Murali Vijay on 146. The story is one of stalemate. Neither side has been able to put the other away.
England bowled poorly at India's last pair yesterday trying a number of tactical variations while ignoring the most obvious one - bowling at the stumps with a conventional field and waiting for the mistake. Its not as though India's last pair batted out of their skins. They took chances at the usual rate. England kept trying to bounce them out from round the wicket. They didn't try the other common method of dismissing tailenders - that of letting the spinner buy them out. This is eventually what happened. Bhuvneshwar Kumar saw a flighted delivery and hit it for four, then saw an even more flighted delivery and hit it to mid-on. In hindsight, would it not have been worth it to concede ever 5-6 boundaries in exchange for that final wicket?
India decided that the last two England wickets were going to be Liam Plunkett and James Anderson. Joe Root was not going to get out. Its hard enough to take wickets when you are trying to get one every ball. Its proportionally harder when you are trying to do it only once every 3 balls (or once every 5 balls). Its even harder to do this on a pitch which everyone says is flat. 70 runs later, they are still waiting.
There isn't a single team in Test cricket right now which is capable of putting the opposition away by playing well consistently for three sessions. South Africa comes close, but their inability to field a high quality spinner gets in the way. Most teams have limited bowlers for whom the odd good spell is all they can manage. Ishant Sharma bowled poorly for most of this innings except for one good spell in the afternoon. Bhuvneshwar Kumar was the most consistent Indian bowler on show.
Here is one measure of how much more difficult it was for India's batsmen than it has been for England's batsmen at Trent Bridge. According to Cricinfo's new 'match centre' data, James Anderson drifted down the leg side 5 times in 38 overs against lefties and righties combined, all against lefties. Bhuvneshwar Kumar drifted down the leg side 3 times against righties and 7 times against lefties in his 25 overs. Ishant Sharma did this a combined 27 times (4 against righties, 23 against lefties) in his 27 overs - once per over. Mohammad Shami drifted down the leg side 19 times in 24 overs. The three main Indian pacemen combined to bowl the equivalent of 8 overs down the legside out of the 76 they bowled at England's batsmen. These 56 deliveries cost them 64 runs. By comparison, Stuart Broad and James Anderson drifted down the leg side 20 times in 71 overs. These 20 deliveries cost England 19 runs. Ben Stokes drifted down the leg side only 4 times in his 34 overs. Liam Plunkett bowled from round the wicket to the right hander and hence attacked on the right hander's leg stump line a lot more and his deliveries were aimed on a line outside leg stump far more often. But he had a field set for this line and length and hence didn't cost his team as many runs and was a legitimate, deliberate plan of attack, not an unforced error. Of the 96 deliveries he bowled outside leg stump (in 37 overs), he conceded 27 runs and took a wicket.
The comparison in a nutshell:
England: In 105 overs from Broad, Anderson and Stokes 24 deliveries down leg for 21 runs.
India: In 76 overs from Sharma, Kumar and Shami Ahmed, 56 deliveries down leg, for 64 runs.
This is the handicap India's batsmen play under - a net 0.6 runs per over due to unforced errors by the respective bowling attacks. This is more than the difference between the scoring rates of the two teams over the first three days of this game.
That India still find themselves 105 runs ahead with 1 English wicket left in the 1st innings of the match is a testament to how much disarray England are in, and just how much control Ravindra Jadeja has given M S Dhoni, compared to what Moeen Ali was able to give Alastair Cook. Jadeja has conceded 56 runs in 24 overs (out of 105), while Moeen Ali conceded 97 runs in 18 overs (out of 152).
James Anderson set an excellent standard for control during India's first innings. He bowled exactly 200 deliveries at right handers. None of those were down the leg side. For Ishant Sharma, the comparable statistic was 4/81, for Shami, 7/86 and for Bhuvneshwar Kumar 3/89.
Normally, with the match poised as it is, one would say with confidence that the side batting 4th would have to played very very well on the final two days to avoid defeat. Given India's erratic attack, an Indian win would be a brave prediction. I'm less worried about the Indian batting. A number of people keep referring back to the 2011 batting, even though only Kohli (among the present group) was in the squad in that series. The performance of the batsmen in 2011 has about as much relevance to the performance of the 2014 line up, as the performance of Diego Maradona's team in the 1986 final has to that of Lionel Messi's team on Sunday. Out of India's last 8 completed innings overseas, going back to the 1st Test at Johannesburg in December 2013, 5 have been in excess of 330. The bowlers have conceded 450 or more in one innings of each of the 4 Tests in South Africa and New Zealand (in addition to conceding 350 here at Trent Bridge).
So while India may still be ahead, the quality of their cricket declines dramatically when they bowl, compared to when they bat. One good spell does not make a good bowler. For the truly good Test bowlers, it is the bad spell which is noteworthy because it is so rare.
India have a long way to go, even if the weather stays fair.