Sachin Tendulkar and Ricky Ponting would figure in most people's list of truly great post-war batsmen. They have each played over a hundred Tests and built imposing career records. Ponting is a couple of years younger than Tendulkar, and also has the advantage of playing for Australia. I say this because Ponting's 127 Tests have been played over 13 years, while Tendulkar's 156 Tests have been played over 19 years. It is quite likely that Ponting will surpass any batting record that Tendulkar might set before he is through. Statistically, there are a few batsman in world cricket today who might surpass Ponting and Tendulkar by the end of their careers - Graeme Smith comes to mind immediately, but they will doubtless be very tired men by the end of it all.
This post is about a fairly controversial matter. It addresses a number of issues which pre-occupy cricket fans, but do so in a way which has little or nothing to do with actual cricket. These questions relate to the value of a given player. Who scores runs when it matters? Who scores runs when its most difficult? Who is a flat track bully? Who is better on the "big stage"? This gamut of questions is often framed in one devastating query - Who has won more matches for his side? I will compare the 4th innings batting of Sachin Tendulkar and Ricky Ponting to try and explain why these questions are more complicated than the simplest statistics might indicate.
I take the notion of the "match-winning" batsman to be a myth. I am firmly of the view that Test Matches are won by bowlers. Batsmen can at best set them up, or prevent their side from losing. In a 4th innings run chase however, there is some scope for batting heroics, and with the recent spurt in successful 4th innings run chases, this subject is at the forefront of a lot of debate. Cricinfo speculated recently that there has been a spurt in successful 4th innings batting in recent years, while popular cricket blogs like The Cricket Watcher's Journal have addressed this issue at some length as well.
Please bear in mind that all the statistics in this post include Test Matches featuring the top 8 Test playing nations only. Bangladesh and Zimbabwe do not feature in any of the games considered in this post.
Of the 1769 Test Matches featuring the top 8 Test playing nations (as they stand today - Australia, South Africa, India, England, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, New Zealand and West Indies), 1129 have yielded a conclusive result (Win, Loss), while 638 have ended in a draw. Of these 1769, 1187 Test Matches have involved a run chase in the 4th innings, of these 455 have been won by the side batting 4th, 400 have been lost by the side batting 4th, 2 games have ended in a tie and 330 have been drawn.
Of the 1187 4th innings run chases, Test teams have made 300 or more in a 4th innings 97 times. Of these, only 22 have been match-winning run chases, while 45 have ended in defeats. By contrast, 1310 of the 1769 Tests featuring the top 8 Test playing nations have seen scores of 300 or more in the 1st or 2nd innings. In a nutshell, teams have reached 300 or more in 74% of 1st and 2nd match innings, while they reach 300 in only 8% of 4th innings. It ought to be fairly clear that this point that 4th innings batting is difficult.
The table below shows a comparison of the batting records of Sachin Tendulkar and Ricky Ponting in the 4th innings. Both have scored over 1000 runs in the 4th innings of Tests (Ponting 1016, Tendulkar 1088) and are amongst only 16 batsmen in the history of Test Cricket to do so. This is a list dominated by batsmen who batted in the top 4 in their respective batting line ups (with the notable exception of Shivnaraine Chanderpaul). Ponting and Tendulkar by no means have the best 4th innings records for non-openers.
At the outset, it is clear that Ponting has a superior record to Tendulkar's. His batting average in the 4th innings is 10 runs better than Tendulkar. Tendulkar's 4th innings batting average is 18 runs lower than his overall average, while Ponting's is only 11 runs lower than his overall average. Both Tendulkar and Ponting have scored 3 4th innings centuries. Tendulkar has passed 50 6 times in 42 4th innings, while Ponting has done so 5 times in 33 4th innings.
The peculiarity of the 4th innings though, is that there is always a firm target score in place. This target score reveals what has happened before in the Test. Some target scores are easy - within a hundred runs, while others are impossible, over 400. 400+ run chases have been successfully completed only 4 times in the history of Test Cricket. The best such run chase is 418.
I have broken down the 4th innings played by Tendulkar and Ponting by the target score into 4 groups - upto 200 runs, between 200 and 300, between 300 and 418 and greater than 418. Of these, i consider targets below 200 to be eminently gettable run chases (there are obviously exceptions). I consider targets between 200 and 300 to be an even contest, which each side having a chance to win. I consider targets in excess of 300 to favor the bowling side. This is to state that in the case of targets under 200, the side batting 4th can be said to be ahead in the game at the end of the first three innings, while in the case of targets in excess of 300, the side batting 4th can be said to be well behind at the end of three innings.
What is immediately apparent looking at these figures, is that Ricky Ponting has played the majority of his 4th innings in pursuit of targets below 200 (18 out of 33) while Sachin Tendulkar has played the majority of his 4th innings in pursuit of targets above 300 (28 out of 42). This is despite the fact that as a percentage of the total number of Test innings, the number of 4th innings played by Tendulkar and Ponting is about the same (16% and 15% respectively).
Ponting outscores Tendulkar easily, by about 18 runs per innings in run chases below 200, but these seems to have no impact on the Win-Loss record of Australia and India - the results are identical of each side.
Both Ponting and Tendulkar perform strongly in run chases between 200 and 300, averaging 81 and 71 respectively. What is noteworthy is the fact that neither side seems to have played too many of these games where the game is evenly balanced going into the 4th innings. Ironically, Tendulkar's finest innings in a run chase of this magnitude came in a defeat, while Ponting's century came after a desperate declaration by Graeme Smith where he set Australia 288 to win in less than 70 overs on a good wicket without a top spinner in his ranks.
In run chases in excess of 300, Tendulkar outscores Ponting by 11 runs per innings, yet this has no impact on the respective win-loss records of India and Australia. Australia have found themselves in this situation less often and have had stronger batting lineups (and probably better wickets to bat on - their most storeyed 4th innings run chases have come in Australia and South Africa). India on the other hand, have found themselves in this situation often, and have made 300 or more to win only twice in their history.
In situations where a target in excess of 418 has been set, Tendulkar has been a complete failure, while Ponting has played one great innings of 156 in the 2005 Ashes.
The overall picture is far more nuanced than the simple conclusion which can be reached from the basic statistics. Tendulkar, more often than not has played in the 4th innings with his side down and out, and struggling for survival, or at best with the game evenly poised (in 33 out of his 42 innings), while Ponting has played in the 4th innings more often than not with his side well and truly on top, or at worst, with the game evenly poised (21 out of 33 innings). Indeed, if we consider 4th innings run chases between 200 and 418, Tendulkar averages 48 over 25 innings, while Ponting averages 42 over 10 innings.
What is significant here is that Tendulkar has played 10% of his Test innings in 4th innings run chases between 200 and 418, while Ponting has played about 4% of his Test innings in a similar situation. When you consider the conventional wisdom that wickets in the sub-continent deteriorate faster than wickets overseas, these statistics become even more significant.
What this also indicates is that the "match-winningness" of a batsman is largely a myth. Ponting has played in more winning sides, but his runs seem to matter less than Tendulkar, who has played in fewer winning sides. If we take a step back from the 4th innings, and consider the second match innings as a whole, then Tendulkar averages 41.13 in 2nd innings batting with 23 50+ (10 hundreds, 13 fifties) scores 97 innings, while Ponting averages 44 in 2nd innings batting with 17 50+ (5 hundreds, 12 fifties) in 83 innings. Keep these numbers in mind as you consider the following statistics.
In Test Matches where Ponting has played, Australia ended the 1st innings of a Test match with an average lead of 125 (435 played 310) runs. In Test Matches where Tendulkar has played, India have ended the 1st innings of a Test Match with an average lead of 12 (383 played 371) runs.
In conclusion, it is hard to determine the quality of a batsman in 4th innings play (even if we assume that this is a singularly important measure of a batsman's accomplishment) by looking at the statistics. The details behind the numbers are much more revealing and interesting. In the comparison between Tendulkar and Ponting, the findings are somewhat counter-intuitive. Ponting not decisively superior to Tendulkar as a 4th innings player. Furthermore, his batting is less important to Australia than Tendulkar's is to India.
Ricky Ponting is still one of the modern day greats, and i suspect that we will see the best of the Australian captain in the next two to three years. His batting will become more and more important for Australia, once his illustrious colleagues begin to fade away.
As for Tendulkar, there is only one type of Test inning that the great man hasn't played - and that is a marathon 10 hour match saving effort (like Atherton at Jo'burg), where he may bat over 4 sessions to save a Test Match. One would not want to see India in a situation where such an innings is required, but if such a situation does come to pass, Tendulkar will have something special to pursue.