The last time India won two consecutive Test Matches in the same series was against Sri Lanka in 2005. In the last 5 years, India have won more Away Test matches than any team except Australia. However, when it comes to playing at home, England, Australia and South Africa have all been significantly superior.
I cannot recall another Test Match in the last three years, when India have looked stronger. Every aspect of India's game is looking good - the opening combination is the best India have had in living memory, the middle order is making runs (albeit not in the way it once did), the new ball attack looks skilfull and incisive (and better than the Australian attack!), and the spinners have been competent. The wicketkeeping position, for many years a bogey, is now occupied by an astonishingly accomplished cricketer.
The one man who is under severe pressure is Anil Kumble. He didn't bowl well at Bangalore, and Amit Mishra, who took his place at Mohali took a five wicket haul on Test debut, and bowled well in both innings. What adds to the pressure on Kumble, is that Delhi is one of his favorite venues. He has taken more wickets at the Kotla than at any other ground in his career (55 wickets at 15.42 in 6 Tests). In addition to all this, he has to captain the side. The contrast between Dhoni and Kumble was stark at Mohali and Bangalore, this Delhi Test is no routine captaincy assignment for Anil Kumble. He is not in an enviable position. He has nothing to gain, and everything to lose. What a position to be in after 18 years and 600+ Test wickets!
India are expected to win, because the Australian bowling hasn't threatened, and the Indian bowling has. The Indian new ball attack has been superb - they have taken 21 wickets at 23 in this series so far, the sort of numbers one associated with McGrath and Donald and the West Indians in their hey day. If Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma stay fit, and keep up this form for the next two Tests, India will win this series.
After nearly two decades as India's bowling mainstay, i wonder what Anil Kumble thinks about his situation today - bowling in an in form attack, possibly as the bowler the opposition would most prefer to face. For make no mistake about it, Anil Kumble has been India's mainstay for the last 18 years. Every 4th Test wicket taken by an Indian bowler in the last 18 years has been taken by Anil Kumble. This is the case even though Anil Kumble has played only 82% of the Test Matches that India have played since his debut (131 out of 159).
I think he should play at Delhi if he is fully fit. I disagree with the idea that Dhoni should replace him, even though, as i have described above, its probably the worst possible position for Anil Kumble to be put in right now. Wicket-taking luck has eluded him this year, and i think things are about to turn around for him.
If Kumble is the big story on the Indian side, it is hard to pinpoint any single player on the Australian side who may be similarly precariously placed. Hayden, Lee and to some extent Michael Clarke are all under pressure for Australia.
Of these three, Lee's situation seems to be most similar to Kumble's - he too seems to have lost his wicket taking touch. Lee has been the second best wicket taker in Test cricket in the last 12 months (62 wickets at 24), but the wickets at Bangalore and Mohali have not suited him. He has not gotten his reverse swing going to any threatening degree, and i think the great improvement in his bowling in the past few months, is the exact thing which is getting in the way. Lee's recent success has been down to increased accuracy, and the ability to bowl a superb good length on or outside off stump. On wickets which have offered almost nothing, this kind of classic seam bowling is not as effective. I wonder whether it might be better for Lee to set aside his original plan of bowling in the corridor and being patient, and switching to a more traditional fast bowler's ploy - of bowling flat out, hitting the wicket hard, and bowl either full, or very short. This would be more in the mould of Waqar Younis and Shoaib Akthar. The reason i think this might be more suited to Lee, is that he lacks the natural height of a McGrath or a Walsh to bowl that good length and be threatening, especially on these wickets. Lee needs to bowl like an genuine fast bowler, and not like a classical outswing bowler. This should be possible, especially with 5 bowlers available to Ricky Ponting.
The second problem area for Australia has been their spin bowling. Ponting doesn't have much to play with in this department, but his use of Cameron White has been telling. He has tended to use White only as a last resort, often after having tried Michael Clarke first. It almost as though, he feels he can't use his spin bowling options as attacking ones because they're not good enough, but as a defensive, holding options, he favors the occasional finger spinner over the wrist spinner. White, like Watson is a bit of a compromise play - an attempt to shore up the lower order, and still play 5 bowlers.
Australia missed Stuart Clark at Mohali, and if he is fit, will shore up the bowling attack for the Delhi Test for sure. He has been instrumental to Australia's recent success, and has quietly built up an impressive Test record (82 wickets at 22 in 19 Tests).
Matthew Hayden will make runs at some point, and his method against Zaheer Khan will be interesting to see. Zaheer Khan has had a lot of success against left handed top order players since his return to the Test team in South Africa in 2006. Graeme Smith, Kumar Sangakkara, Andrew Strauss, Alistair Cook, Mathew Hayden and Michael Vandort have all be dismissed multiple times by Zaheer. Quite apart from all the talk from Hayden about being attacking against Zaheer, here's a little nugget which might help him - Opening batsmen who bat at number 1 (i. e. face the first ball) averaged 9.75 against Zaheer in innings where he has dismissed them (16 innings out of 31), while opening batsmen who bat at number 2 (i. e. start at the non-strikers end) averaged 36 against Zaheer in innings where he dismissed them (7 innings out of 31).
So Zaheer Khan is twice as likely to dismiss the opening batsman who faces up first, than he is to dismiss the opening batsman who faces up second. Hayden has faced the first ball in all four Australian innings in this series so far, and has fallen to Zaheer Khan in the first over twice.
So take the hint Matthew. Let Simon Katich take first strike.
All in all, India go into the Delhi Test as favorites. But beware! The Ferozshah Kotla has been to India, what WACA has been to Australia, and we all know what happened there recently. That the ghost of Sydney has recently been revived by Adam Gilchrist, may just be an omen.
On that note...